Market Cycle Phase Estimate: Tracks position within the approximate 4-year halving cycle weighted by the 4Y SMA Deviation.
How it works:
The marker combines two signals: (1) time since the last halving event, which gives a baseline position along the wave, and (2) the current 4Y SMA Deviation, which nudges the marker left (if hotter than typical for that cycle phase) or right (if colder). This isn't a crystal ball — it's a framework for thinking about where sentiment likely sits in the broader 4-year rhythm.
Green zones (bottom of wave) = accumulation territory.Red zones (top of wave) = distribution territory. The cycle repeats, roughly aligned with Bitcoin's halving schedule every ~4 years.
Cycle Coordinate Estimator: Scatter plot of actual historical (time-since-halving, deviation%) pairs across all cycles. Your current position marked with crosshairs.
How to read this:
Every Bitcoin trading day is plotted at two coordinates: years since the most recent halving (horizontal) and deviation from the 4Y SMA (vertical). Each colored cluster is one full halving cycle. Where clusters overlap, you see the repeating fingerprint of Bitcoin market psychology. The white dot with crosshairs is now. Sitting among past cycle tops means caution. Sitting in the low-deviation zone means accumulation territory. Fixed axes ensure honest cycle-to-cycle comparison. Unlike the sine wave above, this is raw data — no model fitting, no smoothing.
Warning:Treat this as a study — Not as financial advice. Past patterns do not guarantee future returns. All your models will be destroyed. The only absolute is 1 BTC = 1 BTC.